Florida International University: Master of Arts in Global Affairs (2022)

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_{All publications at Global Affairs with Greg Ayres exclusively reflect the personal opinion’s of the author, and in no way are indicative of U.S. Government positions, policy or thinking. All content is generated exclusively from unclassified open source intelligence. @ Greg Ayres, Editor 1/3/2022}

evolution-and-pursuit-of-cyber-security-in-brazil-by-gregory-ayres-and-gabriella-jarquin Download

Gregory Ayres & Gabriella Jarquin examine Brazil’s Cyber Security History, the impact of Brazilian legislation, and outline 7 recommendations for Brazil’s continued pursuit of Cyber Security Maturity.

cyber-security-in-brazil Download

Disagreements within NATO caused USAF FB-111’s to fly with KC-10 tankers, betraying their position to Malta’s Air Defense.

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Explore the HUMINT failures leading up to the 2016 Turkish Coup Attempt

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The ascension of the Scandinavian and Baltic nations as major cyber security powers has been achieved without many of the traditional prerequisites to hard power. I postulate that necessity and political will, driven by the threat of Russian state sponsored actors and transnational criminal groups, have served as the major impetus.

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In its 6th Global epidemic, Cholera is a regular threat in only the poorest of nations. However, due to the existence of indigenous strains present with the Gulf of Mexico, the feasibility of harmful evolutionary pathways, and the increase in global travel Cholera remains a health security concern. While Covid-19 rightly absorbs much of the public health systems attention, I provide useful insights into the feasible measures which may be taken to reduce the threat of cholera both in the United States and abroad.

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California Governor Gavin Newsom experienced a drop in public approval polling due to his limited mitigation efforts and transparency issues during the 2020 wildfire season. In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, policy decisions were made, creating a calculated risk, erring on the side of COVID-19. The limited fuel clearing meant California was ill prepared for the increasingly hot and dry wildfire season. While California exemplifies many best practices in forestry management, efforts will have to be redoubled to keep pace with climate change and rural development.

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Cheap armed drones are on offer from China and Turkey, their deployment to conflict zones is rapidly changing security environments.

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The Taliban’s administration is taking shape as they seek to “govern” the nation. Photo Credit: Hindustan Times

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As the United States embraces increasingly nationalist trade policies, how will Mexico’s automotive manufacturing fare? Lessons from South America provide hope and helpful insights.

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As Portugal experienced their worst forest fires of the century, how will government mismanagement impact voter turnout? Increasing “Political Will” is vital to improve (Disaster Risk Reduction). However, across southern Europe, voter turnout is in decline?

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Presidents Duterte and Erdogan have proved difficult allies for the United States. How might these relationships be maintained or repaired, and what holds these alliances together in 2021? How can these relationships recover from recent damage and divergence?

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As US forces withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, the military mission in Syria remains ambiguous, exposing the threat of another, albeit smaller, “Forever War”.

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Infrastructure spending appears imminent, how will it impact America’s trading partners?

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Russia recently unveiled the Su-75 “Checkmate”, a proposed 5th Generation Fighter Jet. I examine the potential export market for Russia’s newest proposed fighter, exploring financial, military, and political concerns in arms imports.

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The path of the Iranian warships, Makran and Sahand, reflect a deployment intended to serve as a diplomatic bargaining chip. A bargaining chip that has likely failed, as the U.S. continues to strike Iranian positions in Iraq and Syria.

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Do Micro-States or the world’s largest nation’s hold on to their leaders for longer? A statistical analysis shows no correlation between the area of a nation and the tenure of their leaders.

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As agricultural prices outpace inflation, and nation’s grapple with a global pandemic, which nations stand to gain?

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Coming Soon: Drafting a G-30 (July 11th)!

As the G-20 meets in Italy to discuss corporate tax standardization, Jose Garcia and I address the fixed and political nature of G-20 membership. We draft an additional 10 nations to form a G-30 and discuss the benefits and challenges inherent to updating and expansion. Adding geographic diversity, incorporating developing economies, and managing political considerations we outline our hypothetical G-30.

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Looking at the FBI’s 120 most wanted Cyber Criminals reveals the scope of threat faced by the U.S. When all but 1 of the 120 are foreign nationals the FBI must play second fiddle to U.S. foreign relations and negotiations. I explore the intersection of diplomacy and cyber-crime in this weeks article Cyber Crime and the FBI’s Most Wanted

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8 Nagging Realities for 2021

In an ever changing world we must constantly challenge our existing belief sets. New facts create new realities and continuing to operate with outdated beliefs is not only dangerous but foolish. In 8 Nagging Realities for 2021, I discuss a number of traditional beliefs that need to be challenged or updated.

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Geopolitics of the 4th and 5th Generation: The production and export of modern fighter jets has long been the scene of an intense geopolitical competition. Technological dominance and the threat of sanctions have elevated American dominance in the export of air power. Access to U.S. fighters has been an effective inducement for the maintaining alliances and shaping international behavior.

Geopolitics of the 4th and 5th Generation (New Article!)

geopolitics-of-fighter-jet-procurement Download

Complexities of Diplomacy at Sea: As the United States monitors a potential arms shipment of 7 fast attack torpedo boats to Venezuela aboard a military convoy what are the Biden administrations options? (Article available for download below)

Increased cooperation between Maduro and Rouhani has created an emerging security threat and political headaches for the Biden administration.

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Historical Academic Papers

Naval Force & Diplomacy: Impact of U.S. and Russian Navies in Libya

The Libyan Civil War has long been plagued by foreign actors, with limited ground assets naval power has greatly shaped outcomes in the sparsely populated desert nation. Libya has played a role in Russia’s growing naval power projection in the Mediterranean and beyond.

naval-force-and-diplomacy-the-us-and-russian-navies-in-the-mediterranean Download

Rebuilding Iraq following the 2003 coalition invasion was a monumental task. Enormous volumes have been written on the failures by the United States and their coalition partners. Their were failures both within Iraq and Washington D.C. that contributed to sectarian violence, unfinished infrastructure projects, and internal political grievances. Iraq’s fledgling democracy would also require internal changes, changes that would be solidified for future generations by a rebuilt education system. Exploring the successes and failures Iraq’s new education system can provide powerful insights into the nation and the very essence of reconstruction.

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The Cold War was fought along many fault lines: Military, Political, and Economic. The United States agricultural dominance allowed for excess grain production, a pivotal tool in leveraging both allies and foes. Examining the various agricultural policies and “Grain Diplomacy” decisions yields interesting insight into core economic factors that eventually led to American preeminence and Soviet collapse.

How will food security impact future powers?

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Chile’s economic success is a standout story in Latin America. Leaving the economic principles of the Chicago Boys as sacrosanct, even to the most liberal of Chile’s rulers. With the riots of 2019, and constitutional changes on the way we are well served to look back at Chile’s economic and political history. By analyzing the key events and their impact on Chile’s largest economic sectors we can better understand the future. Chile’s handling of Covid-19 has been impressive by South American standards, and record high commodity prices will help, but domestic political challenges persist.

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Global Affairs with Gregory Ayres

Florida International University: Master of Arts in Global Affairs (2022)

Your home for insight into Global Affairs

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